Risk Cascade Simulation
See how a single risk event ripples through your project. Understand second and third-order effects before they happen.
What It Does
When a risk occurs, it rarely affects just one task. The Risk Cascade Simulation shows you:
- Downstream impact: Which tasks get delayed when this risk triggers
- Delay propagation: How many days of delay accumulate through the dependency chain
- Cascade paths: Multiple routes a risk can take through your project
- Monte Carlo statistics: Probability distributions for cascade outcomes
How to Use
- 1
Find a Risk Node
Locate any red diamond-shaped risk node on your canvas.
- 2
Click the Lightning Button
Hover over the risk node and click the ⚡ (Zap) icon that appears.
- 3
Review Cascade Results
The dialog shows three tabs: Single Run, Monte Carlo, and Cascade Paths.
- 4
Analyze Affected Nodes
See which downstream tasks are impacted and by how much.
Output Explained
Single Run
Shows one simulation where the risk triggers. Displays the cascade chain step-by-step with timeline visualization.
Monte Carlo
Runs 100 iterations to calculate: average delay, cascade depth distribution, and trigger probability percentiles.
Cascade Paths
Maps all possible paths the risk can take through the dependency graph, with depth tracking for each route.
Risk Node Properties
Risk nodes have additional properties for cascade simulation:
| Property | Description |
|---|---|
| triggersRisks | IDs of other risks triggered if this risk occurs |
| triggeredByRisks | IDs of risks that can trigger this risk |
| cascadeDelay | Days delay before cascade triggers (default: 0) |
| conditionalLikelihood | Likelihood (0-100%) when triggered by another risk |
Best Practices
Connect risk nodes to the tasks they directly affect for accurate cascade simulation.
Set realistic impact values (in days) on risk nodes to get meaningful delay propagation.
Use the Monte Carlo tab to understand the range of possible outcomes, not just the worst case.
Credit Cost
0 credits
Cascade simulation runs entirely client-side—no AI API calls.
Tier Availability
Free
Not available
Pro
View mode
Premium
Interactive mode